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Learn
Every Type of Poker with Full Color Examples
ODDS
and ADVANCED PLAY
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Hold'em
Stats you must know. |
%
Any other opponent has an Ace
when you have one. |
Heads
up
= 12% |
3
Players
= 23% |
4
Players
= 32% |
| 5
Players
= 42% |
6
Players
= 50% |
| 7
Players
= 57% |
8
Players
= 64% |
%
Opponent has an Ace and has
a higher kicker than you. |
Your
Hand |
Heads
Up |
5
Handed |
8
Handed |
A-Q |
1% |
4% |
7% |
A-J |
2% |
8% |
13% |
A-T |
3% |
11% |
19% |
A-9 |
4% |
15% |
24% |
A-8 |
5% |
18% |
30% |
A-7 |
6% |
22% |
35% |
A-6 |
7% |
25% |
39% |
A-5 |
8% |
28% |
44% |
A-4 |
9% |
31% |
48% |
%
Flop is Ace High and you have one = 16.5% |
%
Flop is Ace High and you don't
have
one = 22% |
%
Flop is King High and you have one = 14% |
%
Flop is King High and you don't
have
one = 18% |
%
Flop is Queen High and you have one = 11.5% |
%
Flop is Queen High and you don't
have
one = 15% |
%
Flop is Jack High and you have one = 9% |
%
Flop is Jack High and you don't
have
one = 12% |
%
Flop is Ten High and you have one = 7.5% |
%
Flop is Ten High and you don't
have
one = 10% |
%
Flop is Nine High and you have one = 6% |
%
Flop is Nine High and you don't
have
one = 7.6% |
%
Flop is Eight High and you have one = 4% |
%
Flop is Eight High and you don't
have
one = 5.7% |
%
Flop is Seven High and you have one = 3% |
%
Flop is Seven High and you don't
have
one = 4% |
%
Flop is Six High and you have one = 2% |
%
Flop is Six High and you don't
have
one = 2.7% |
A
Bad Way to Slow Play |
I watched
a player lose $1,500.00 in a 20-40 No Limit Hold'em
game by slow playing what he thought was a monster.
He had called the small blind with a suited K-3,
only one player from 3rd position had called, and
the big blind has just called as well. The flop
came 3-3-4 with two diamonds. Now the big blind
ALSO had a three! He had a 9-3 off suite. So far
this was a good scenario for the K-3 player to win
the pot. I watched as they both CHECKED the flop...
The turn
card came a five of hearts and the K-3 player bet
out $80.00 while the small blind player raised $200.00
and the 3rd position limper moved all in three racks!
The 9-3 player put the All-in player on a high pair
and made a horrible call. The K-3 player could not
call at this poin fearing a straight or fullhouse.
This was the end result.
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The
3rd position player ended up having 6-7 suited and
just turned a straight for free and was bet into,
there was nothing he did wrong but was he the one
that should have gotten paid off?
You
need to understand what to slow play and what not
to slow play. When the flop comes with a pair and
two suited connected cards don't think you are reeling
anyone in with three of a kind. If you look back at
the flop you should realize that a K-3 is not as strong
as it looks. Besides all the obvious draws the 3's
are lower than the 4 so a 4 on the turn would hurt
along with a running pair. What if you check that
flop twice with K-3 or even A3 and end up losing to
Q-J offsuite by runner runner Q or Jack? A hand that
had nothing at all to do with the flop!
If
you have K-3 in the hand above you should lose to
Ace-3 or lose to that 9-3 hand with the river being
a 9 but NOT to six seven. You should be betting in
such a manner as to draw out the similar hands to
yours or hands that don't need a draw on that flop
like JJ or 99. If you lose with K-3 with the above
flop to a drawing hand you better have made a player
draw for and enormous amount of money, if you didn't
you have overestimated the hand. With that flop you
check pocket fours NOT K-3.
In
this case the K-3 player should have made a big move
on the flop, since that's the only place he hand was
powerful, like a bet of over $200. From here he would
have only drawn out similar hands or non-drawing hands
like the 9-3 big blind. Hopefully the 9-3 player might
have went all-in or re-raised and the 6-7 player would
be pushed out or have to draw for a HUGE amount instead
of for free.
*Just
by noticing from previous action that this player
makes horrible calls like this, (theK-3 player folded
but the 9-3 still called), I would have never checked
that flop because he would have raised me with 55
and above or even A4 and I would have just went all
in because I would have either won a small pot or
a large pot but would not have lost. |
Below
is the entire percentage sheet for 1
out through 30 outs for any flop
game, including the percentage of making your hand on
the TURN, the RIVER, and even the TURN or RIVER as one
percentage. |
| #
OF OUTS |
To
Turn & River % |
To
Turn % |
To
River % |
1 |
4.3% |
2.10% |
2.20% |
2 |
8.4% |
4.26% |
4.35% |
3 |
12.5% |
6.38% |
6.52% |
4 |
16.5% |
8.51% |
8.70% |
5 |
20.4% |
10.64% |
10.87% |
6 |
24.1% |
12.77% |
13.04% |
7 |
27.8% |
14.89% |
15.22% |
8 |
31.5% |
17.02% |
17.39% |
9 |
35.0% |
19.15% |
19.57% |
10 |
38.4% |
21.28% |
21.74% |
11 |
41.7% |
23.40% |
23.91% |
12 |
45.0% |
25.53% |
26.09% |
13 |
48.1% |
27.66% |
28.26% |
14 |
51.2% |
29.79% |
30.43% |
15 |
54.1%
|
31.91% |
32.61%
|
16 |
57.0%
|
34.04% |
34.78% |
17 |
60.0%
|
36.17% |
36.96% |
18 |
62.4%
|
38.30% |
39.13% |
19 |
65.0% |
40.43% |
41.30% |
20 |
67.5% |
42.55% |
43.48% |
21 |
70.0% |
44.68%
|
45.65% |
22 |
72.2%
|
46.81% |
47.83% |
23 |
74.5% |
48.94% |
50.00% |
24 |
76.6% |
51.06% |
52.17% |
25 |
78.6%
|
53.19%
|
54.35% |
26 |
80.6%
|
55.32% |
56.52% |
27 |
82.4%
|
57.45%
|
58.70% |
28 |
84.2%
|
59.57% |
60.87% |
29 |
85.8% |
61.70%
|
63.04% |
30 |
87.4%
|
63.83%
|
65.22% |
Best
rule of thumb: just
multiply your number of outs by 2 and you will be very
close to the percentages in the above chart. |
Flop any pair = 2.5:1 = 29% |
Flop
a Set = 8.3:1 = 11% |
Flop
2 pair = 49:1 = 2.0% |
Flop
a FullHouse with a pair 136:1 = 0.74% |
Flop Trips holding 2 different cards = 1.3% |
To
Flop Quads with a pocket pair = 0.25% |
There are 19,600 Hold'em flop combinations. |
Flop
has a pair = 16.67% |
Flop
has 3 different suites = 40% |
Flop
has 2 suited cards = 55.6% |
Flop
has 3 cards in sequence = 3.5% |
Flop
has 3 suited cards =18:1 = 5.3% |
Flop
has 2 cards in sequence = 40% |
Flop
has 3 of a kind = 424:1= 0.24% |
Flop
has No cards in sequence = 55.6% |
Actual
Game Play Percentage vs. Computer Calculated Percentages
Above. |
Texas Hold'em
An obvious laydown....or was it?
|
I
made a call I normally don't make with KJ suited
once, even though the odds and the implied odds
told me otherwise.
The
small blind raised after I was the forth player
to limp into this six player pot and everyone
called him, making 12 total before the flop.
He bet out on the flop and the BB, player3 and
4 both called while player5 folded. Since I
only had to put 1 bet in out of the 16 bets
already in the pot to catch running spades or
a straight, I called. My 1/17th of the pot call
was only 5.88% of the pot. So it was even mathematically
correct as well.
| Player3 |
Player4 |
Player5 |
Player6(Me) |
Fold |
| BB |
SM |
DEALER |
Fold |
Fold |
But
on the Turn when the queen hit, the raiser bet
again, the BB called, player3 called, but player4
raised and was now ready to muck my hand since
I only had four outs to win which is only 8.70%
vs. putting in 4 more small bets making the
pot have 31 small bets total. Four bet out of
31 is 12.9%, way too high for me to call. Even
using implied odds by assuming the original
raiser will call the raise and maybe one other
player putting 35 bets in the pot, I still only
get 4/35 = 11.43%, and can't call.
So
why did I call? There is a raise on the Turn
before it gets to me and there is an Ace on
the board and I have KJ, anyone would fold this
right?
But....what
if no one was dealt a 10? By the action you
see people obviously have an Ace in their hand,
the Turn raiser might have AQ or a set, the
other players left in must have had something
on the Flop. Also from watching these players
for hours I noticed that they didn't limp in
with Ace-Ten. If the BB had Ace-Ten he would
have raised on the flop. When I called the Turn
raise everyone folded except for me and player4.
So the only thing the others could have had
were 3 to a flush or weak Aces or the SM trying
to bluff with KK. I made a guesstimate that
no one was dealt a 10. So I was really only
guessing with the few players who folded pre-flop.
If
no one was dealt a 10 my odds on those four
outs are not 8.7% anymore. That number is based
on not knowing who was dealt what which is why
you divide 4 into (52 - Flop- Turn-Your Hand)
= 4/46 = 8.7%.
But
if we subtract off 8 other players who were
dealt 2 cards each we can take another 16 cards
away from the deck and now only have 30 left.
Four out of 30 is much higher than 8.7%, in
fact it's 13.33%, which is higher than the 11.43%
needed to call!
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Very
often in this game the best players know where
they are at in the hand, either because there
was a pre-flop raise or re-raise or there are
only 2 or three players in the pot. However, when
2 or 3 players limp in and the blinds don't raise,
knowing your edge percentage becomes much more
difficult. |
Here
is a chart showing the percentage that your
hand is a higher ranking Omaha High Low hand
than the others with:
FIVE
PLAYERS TOTAL:
(ds)
= double suited
(s) = single suited
(o)
= offsuite
|
Your
Hand |
%
Better |
| A-A-2-5
(ds) |
118% |
A-A-2-5
(o) |
86% |
A-2-3-4
(s) |
77% |
A-2-3-4
(o) |
60% |
A-2-3-10
(o) |
54% |
A-A-3-Q
(o) |
53% |
A-2-K-Q
(o) |
52% |
A-A-K-K
(ds) |
44% |
A-A-9-5
(s) |
43% |
A-2-9-8
(s) |
34% |
A-4-Q-10
(s) |
33% |
2-3-4-5
(o) |
24% |
A-4-Q-10
(o) |
17% |
A-3-7-10
(o) |
17% |
A-2-8-9
(o) |
16% |
A-4-8-9
(s) |
16% |
A-K-Q-J
(ds) |
15% |
A-3-9-10
(o) |
14% |
A-3-7-9
(o) |
10% |
A-3-8-9
(o) |
9% |
Q-Q-K-10
(s) |
8% |
2-3-5-J
(o) |
8% |
A-Q-10-9
(ds) |
8% |
J-J-Q-10
(s) |
6% |
Q-J-10-9
(ds) |
4% |
3-4-5-6
(o) |
4% |
A-4-8-9
(o) |
0%(even) |
2-3-8-9
(o) |
-7.0% |
2-4-6-8
(o) |
-7.0% |
4-5-6-7
(o) |
-14.0% |
Q-J-10-9
(o) |
-14.0% |
A-Q-10-9
(o) |
-17.0% |
5-6-7-8
(o) |
-24.0% |
Omaha
Hi/Low
Call
me Crazy
|
| Player3 |
Player4 |
Fold |
Fold |
Player7 |
| Me(BB) |
SM |
DEALER |
Player9 |
Fold |
I must admit this call did not look like it
made any sense but it sure paid out a ton. I
was in the BB with a pretty bad Omaha Hi/Low
hand (10,10,9,9) all off suit. Three players
limped in on a pretty tight table and player9
raised everyone and the small blind even called
so I called and now there were 12 bets in the
pot.
When the flop hit (223), I knew at least 1
or most likely 2 players had a 2 and the rest
had good low draws. When player3 bet and everyone
called including the small blind I actually
could mathematically make the correct call with
9's and 10's. My call on the Flop was only 1
bet out of 18, which is only 5.56%. I actually
had a much higher chance than that to get a
fullhouse.
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Now
on the Turn another 3 hit turning the pot over
to the player holding the 3 rather than the
2. From here player3 bet, player4 and 7 folded
while player9 and the small blind folded. So
it was my turn to act with a turn raise in front
of me and I'm holding 10,10,9,9 in Omaha Hi/Low
and the board is 2233.
This
looks like an obvious fold because my call here
is 4 bets out of a total pot of 28 bets or 14.3%
of the pot. My chances of hitting one of my
4 outs on the River in Omaha is 4/44 = 9.09%.Even
using implied odds and assuming that player3
will call the raise my pot percentage is still
4/(30 bets) = 13.33%, either way I can't mathematically
make a call under 9.09% of the pot.
However
here all the REAL GAME PLAY ODDS which made
me call.
Since
so many cards are dealt out in this game it
would be rare for no one to be dealt a 9 or
a Ten, however keep in mind that I did have
2 of each of them. Also if my cards hit the
river there will be no low and I will scoop
the entire pot and raise the river.
Now
if no one was dealt a 9 or a Ten I can subtract
8 players times 4 cards each = 32 cards from
the deck as well as my hand, the Flop, and the
Turn. (52-32-4-3-1) = 12. Yes, only twelve cards
left! Now my 4 outs don't look so bad. 4/12
= 33.33%!
If
any player was dealt a 9 or Ten I still get
3/12 = 25.%
Even
if another player was dealt a 9 or Ten I get
2/12 = 16.67%
So
the only way for me to not make this call (which
looks completely wrong by looking at the board)
would be for 3 other players to be dealt a 9
or a Ten while I had 2 of each of them!
This
example truly shows how the odds of some specific
hands when played out show huge differences
to the standard computer generated odds.
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