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Brains Before Nuts

If you don't know an Ace from a King or you have played for years, this site is for you.
ADVANCED PLAYER'S ADVICE

 

Hold'em Stats you must know.
% Any other opponent has an Ace when you have one.
Heads up = 12%
3 Players = 23%
4 Players = 32%

5 Players = 42%

6 Players = 50%

7 Players = 57%
8 Players = 64%

 

 

% Opponent has an Ace and has a higher kicker than you.
Your Hand
Heads Up
5 Handed
8 Handed
A-Q
1%
4%
7%
A-J
2%
8%
13%
A-T
3%
11%
19%
A-9
4%
15%
24%
A-8
5%
18%
30%
A-7
6%
22%
35%
A-6
7%
25%
39%
A-5
8%
28%
44%
A-4
9%
31%
48%

 

 

% Flop is Ace High and you have one = 16.5%
% Flop is Ace High and you don't have one = 22%
% Flop is King High and you have one = 14%
% Flop is King High and you don't have one = 18%
% Flop is Queen High and you have one = 11.5%
% Flop is Queen High and you don't have one = 15%
% Flop is Jack High and you have one = 9%
% Flop is Jack High and you don't have one = 12%
% Flop is Ten High and you have one = 7.5%
% Flop is Ten High and you don't have one = 10%
% Flop is Nine High and you have one = 6%
% Flop is Nine High and you don't have one = 7.6%
% Flop is Eight High and you have one = 4%
% Flop is Eight High and you don't have one = 5.7%
% Flop is Seven High and you have one = 3%
% Flop is Seven High and you don't have one = 4%
% Flop is Six High and you have one = 2%
% Flop is Six High and you don't have one = 2.7%

 

 

A Bad Way to Slow Play

I watched a player lose $1,500.00 in a 20-40 No Limit Hold'em game by slow playing what he thought was a monster. He had called the small blind with a suited K-3, only one player from 3rd position had called, and the big blind has just called as well. The flop came 3-3-4 with two diamonds. Now the big blind ALSO had a three! He had a 9-3 off suite. So far this was a good scenario for the K-3 player to win the pot. I watched as they both CHECKED the flop...

The turn card came a five of hearts and the K-3 player bet out $80.00 while the small blind player raised $200.00 and the 3rd position limper moved all in three racks! The 9-3 player put the All-in player on a high pair and made a horrible call. The K-3 player could not call at this poin fearing a straight or fullhouse. This was the end result.

The 3rd position player ended up having 6-7 suited and just turned a straight for free and was bet into, there was nothing he did wrong but was he the one that should have gotten paid off?

You need to understand what to slow play and what not to slow play. When the flop comes with a pair and two suited connected cards don't think you are reeling anyone in with three of a kind. If you look back at the flop you should realize that a K-3 is not as strong as it looks. Besides all the obvious draws the 3's are lower than the 4 so a 4 on the turn would hurt along with a running pair. What if you check that flop twice with K-3 or even A3 and end up losing to Q-J offsuite by runner runner Q or Jack? A hand that had nothing at all to do with the flop!

If you have K-3 in the hand above you should lose to Ace-3 or lose to that 9-3 hand with the river being a 9 but NOT to six seven. You should be betting in such a manner as to draw out the similar hands to yours or hands that don't need a draw on that flop like JJ or 99. If you lose with K-3 with the above flop to a drawing hand you better have made a player draw for and enormous amount of money, if you didn't you have overestimated the hand. With that flop you check pocket fours NOT K-3.

In this case the K-3 player should have made a big move on the flop, since that's the only place he hand was powerful, like a bet of over $200. From here he would have only drawn out similar hands or non-drawing hands like the 9-3 big blind. Hopefully the 9-3 player might have went all-in or re-raised and the 6-7 player would be pushed out or have to draw for a HUGE amount instead of for free.

*Just by noticing from previous action that this player makes horrible calls like this, (theK-3 player folded but the 9-3 still called), I would have never checked that flop because he would have raised me with 55 and above or even A4 and I would have just went all in because I would have either won a small pot or a large pot but would not have lost.

Below is the entire percentage sheet for 1 out through 30 outs for any flop game, including the percentage of making your hand on the TURN, the RIVER, and even the TURN or RIVER as one percentage.

# OF OUTS
To Turn & River %
To Turn %

To River %
1
4.3%
2.10%
2.20%
2
8.4%
4.26%
4.35%
3
12.5%
6.38%
6.52%
4
16.5%
8.51%
8.70%
5
20.4%
10.64%
10.87%
6
24.1%
12.77%
13.04%
7
27.8%
14.89%
15.22%
8
31.5%
17.02%
17.39%
9
35.0%
19.15%
19.57%
10
38.4%
21.28%
21.74%
11
41.7%
23.40%
23.91%
12
45.0%
25.53%
26.09%
13
48.1%
27.66%
28.26%
14
51.2%
29.79%
30.43%
15
54.1%
31.91%
32.61%
16
57.0%
34.04%
34.78%
17
60.0%
36.17%
36.96%
18
62.4%
38.30%
39.13%
19
65.0%
40.43%
41.30%
20
67.5%
42.55%
43.48%
21
70.0%
44.68%
45.65%
22
72.2%
46.81%
47.83%
23
74.5%
48.94%
50.00%
24
76.6%
51.06%
52.17%
25
78.6%
53.19%
54.35%
26
80.6%
55.32%
56.52%
27
82.4%
57.45%
58.70%
28
84.2%
59.57%
60.87%
29
85.8%
61.70%
63.04%
30
87.4%
63.83%
65.22%

Other Texas Hold'em odds
Best rule of thumb: just multiply your number of outs by 2 and you will be very close to the percentages in the above chart.
Flop any pair = 2.5:1 = 29%
Flop a Set = 8.3:1 = 11%
Flop 2 pair = 49:1 = 2.0%
Flop a FullHouse with a pair 136:1 = 0.74%
Flop Trips holding 2 different cards = 1.3%
To Flop Quads with a pocket pair = 0.25%

Odds for the Flop

 

There are 19,600 Hold'em flop combinations.
Flop has a pair = 16.67%
Flop has 3 different suites = 40%
Flop has 2 suited cards = 55.6%
Flop has 3 cards in sequence = 3.5%
Flop has 3 suited cards =18:1 = 5.3%
Flop has 2 cards in sequence = 40%
Flop has 3 of a kind = 424:1= 0.24%
Flop has No cards in sequence = 55.6%

Actual Game Play Percentage vs. Computer Calculated Percentages Above.

Texas Hold'em

An obvious laydown....or was it?

I made a call I normally don't make with KJ suited once, even though the odds and the implied odds told me otherwise.

The small blind raised after I was the forth player to limp into this six player pot and everyone called him, making 12 total before the flop. He bet out on the flop and the BB, player3 and 4 both called while player5 folded. Since I only had to put 1 bet in out of the 16 bets already in the pot to catch running spades or a straight, I called. My 1/17th of the pot call was only 5.88% of the pot. So it was even mathematically correct as well.

Pre-Flop
Player3
Player4
Player5
Player6(Me)
Fold
BB
SM
DEALER
Fold
Fold

But on the Turn when the queen hit, the raiser bet again, the BB called, player3 called, but player4 raised and was now ready to muck my hand since I only had four outs to win which is only 8.70% vs. putting in 4 more small bets making the pot have 31 small bets total. Four bet out of 31 is 12.9%, way too high for me to call. Even using implied odds by assuming the original raiser will call the raise and maybe one other player putting 35 bets in the pot, I still only get 4/35 = 11.43%, and can't call.

So why did I call? There is a raise on the Turn before it gets to me and there is an Ace on the board and I have KJ, anyone would fold this right?

But....what if no one was dealt a 10? By the action you see people obviously have an Ace in their hand, the Turn raiser might have AQ or a set, the other players left in must have had something on the Flop. Also from watching these players for hours I noticed that they didn't limp in with Ace-Ten. If the BB had Ace-Ten he would have raised on the flop. When I called the Turn raise everyone folded except for me and player4. So the only thing the others could have had were 3 to a flush or weak Aces or the SM trying to bluff with KK. I made a guesstimate that no one was dealt a 10. So I was really only guessing with the few players who folded pre-flop.

If no one was dealt a 10 my odds on those four outs are not 8.7% anymore. That number is based on not knowing who was dealt what which is why you divide 4 into (52 - Flop- Turn-Your Hand) = 4/46 = 8.7%.

But if we subtract off 8 other players who were dealt 2 cards each we can take another 16 cards away from the deck and now only have 30 left. Four out of 30 is much higher than 8.7%, in fact it's 13.33%, which is higher than the 11.43% needed to call!

 

Omaha Hi/Low
Very often in this game the best players know where they are at in the hand, either because there was a pre-flop raise or re-raise or there are only 2 or three players in the pot. However, when 2 or 3 players limp in and the blinds don't raise, knowing your edge percentage becomes much more difficult.

Here is a chart showing the percentage that your hand is a higher ranking Omaha High Low hand than the others with:

FIVE PLAYERS TOTAL:

(ds) = double suited

(s) = single suited

(o) = offsuite
Your Hand
% Better

A-A-2-5 (ds)

118%
A-A-2-5 (o)
86%
A-2-3-4 (s)
77%
A-2-3-4 (o)
60%
A-2-3-10 (o)
54%
A-A-3-Q (o)
53%
A-2-K-Q (o)
52%
A-A-K-K (ds)
44%
A-A-9-5 (s)
43%
A-2-9-8 (s)
34%
A-4-Q-10 (s)
33%
2-3-4-5 (o)
24%
A-4-Q-10 (o)
17%
A-3-7-10 (o)
17%
A-2-8-9 (o)
16%
A-4-8-9 (s)
16%
A-K-Q-J (ds)
15%
A-3-9-10 (o)
14%
A-3-7-9 (o)
10%
A-3-8-9 (o)
9%
Q-Q-K-10 (s)
8%
2-3-5-J (o)
8%
A-Q-10-9 (ds)
8%
J-J-Q-10 (s)
6%
Q-J-10-9 (ds)
4%
3-4-5-6 (o)
4%
A-4-8-9 (o)
0%(even)
2-3-8-9 (o)
-7.0%
2-4-6-8 (o)
-7.0%
4-5-6-7 (o)
-14.0%
Q-J-10-9 (o)
-14.0%
A-Q-10-9 (o)
-17.0%
5-6-7-8 (o)
-24.0%

 

 

 

Omaha Hi/Low

Call me Crazy

Player3
Player4
Fold
Fold
Player7
Me(BB)
SM
DEALER
Player9
Fold

I must admit this call did not look like it made any sense but it sure paid out a ton. I was in the BB with a pretty bad Omaha Hi/Low hand (10,10,9,9) all off suit. Three players limped in on a pretty tight table and player9 raised everyone and the small blind even called so I called and now there were 12 bets in the pot.

When the flop hit (223), I knew at least 1 or most likely 2 players had a 2 and the rest had good low draws. When player3 bet and everyone called including the small blind I actually could mathematically make the correct call with 9's and 10's. My call on the Flop was only 1 bet out of 18, which is only 5.56%. I actually had a much higher chance than that to get a fullhouse.

Now on the Turn another 3 hit turning the pot over to the player holding the 3 rather than the 2. From here player3 bet, player4 and 7 folded while player9 and the small blind folded. So it was my turn to act with a turn raise in front of me and I'm holding 10,10,9,9 in Omaha Hi/Low and the board is 2233.

This looks like an obvious fold because my call here is 4 bets out of a total pot of 28 bets or 14.3% of the pot. My chances of hitting one of my 4 outs on the River in Omaha is 4/44 = 9.09%.Even using implied odds and assuming that player3 will call the raise my pot percentage is still 4/(30 bets) = 13.33%, either way I can't mathematically make a call under 9.09% of the pot.

However here all the REAL GAME PLAY ODDS which made me call.

Since so many cards are dealt out in this game it would be rare for no one to be dealt a 9 or a Ten, however keep in mind that I did have 2 of each of them. Also if my cards hit the river there will be no low and I will scoop the entire pot and raise the river.

Now if no one was dealt a 9 or a Ten I can subtract 8 players times 4 cards each = 32 cards from the deck as well as my hand, the Flop, and the Turn. (52-32-4-3-1) = 12. Yes, only twelve cards left! Now my 4 outs don't look so bad. 4/12 = 33.33%!

If any player was dealt a 9 or Ten I still get 3/12 = 25.%

Even if another player was dealt a 9 or Ten I get 2/12 = 16.67%

So the only way for me to not make this call (which looks completely wrong by looking at the board) would be for 3 other players to be dealt a 9 or a Ten while I had 2 of each of them!

This example truly shows how the odds of some specific hands when played out show huge differences to the standard computer generated odds.

 

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